The JPMorgan Chase Center for Geopolitics predicts that U.S. import tariffs on strategic sectors will persist after Donald Trump leaves office. The bank predicts that the United States will maintain a 22% effective tariff rate while keeping semiconductor and defense sector duties to support domestic manufacturing.
The report contradicts market forecasts about trade deals indicating reduced protectionism because industrial protection receives bipartisan support which makes pre-2017 low-tariff policies unlikely to return. The report indicates that any president who supports free trade would encounter significant challenges when attempting to dismantle Trump’s tariff system.
The JPMorgan report indicates that businesses will modify their supply chains to match current trade conditions which will reduce the chances of tariff reversals. The geopolitical center established by JPMorgan in May under the leadership of Derek Chollet who served as U.S. defense and foreign policy official provides businesses with guidance during global instability.
The JPMorganChase Institute reported in its April 2 study that universal tariffs would increase direct import expenses for midsize companies to $187.7 billion which represents six times the initial tariff impact in 2025.
